Statistical Inference Methods for Two Crossing Survival Curves: A Comparison of Methods

A common problem that is encountered in medical applications is the overall homogeneity of survival distributions when two survival curves cross each other. A survey demonstrated that under this condition, which was an obvious violation of the assumption of proportional hazard rates, the log-rank test was still used in 70% of studies. Several statistical methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, in many applications, it is difficult to specify the types of survival differences and choose an appropriate method prior to analysis. Thus, we conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the power and type I error rate of these procedures under various patterns of crossing survival curves with different censoring rates and distribution parameters. Our objective was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of tests in different situations and for various censoring rates and to recommend an appropriate test that will not fail for a wide range of applications. Simulation studies demonstrated that adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure offer higher power and greater stability than other methods when the survival distributions cross at early, middle or late times. Even for proportional hazards, both methods maintain acceptable power compared with the log-rank test. In terms of the type I error rate, Renyi and Cramér—von Mises tests are relatively conservative, whereas the statistics of the Lin-Xu test exhibit apparent inflation as the censoring rate increases. Other tests produce results close to the nominal 0.05 level. In conclusion, adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure are found to be the most stable and feasible approaches for a variety of situations and censoring rates. Therefore, they are applicable to a wider spectrum of alternatives compared with other tests.     

Air Pollution in China: Mapping of Concentrations and Sources

China has recently made available hourly air pollution data from over 1500 sites, including airborne particulate matter (PM), SO₂, NO₂, and O₃. We apply Kriging interpolation to four months of data to derive pollution maps for eastern China. Consistent with prior findings, the greatest pollution occurs in the east, but significant levels are widespread across northern and central China and are not limited to major cities or geologic basins. Sources of pollution are widespread, but are particularly intense in a northeast corridor that extends from near Shanghai to north of Beijing. During our analysis period, 92% of the population of China experienced >120 hours of unhealthy air (US EPA standard), and 38% experienced average concentrations that were unhealthy. China’s population-weighted average exposure to PM_2.5 was 52 μg/m³. The observed air pollution is calculated to contribute to 1.6 million deaths/year in China [0.7–2.2 million deaths/year at 95% confidence], roughly 17% of all deaths in China.     

Photosynthetic Light Responses May Explain Vertical Distribution of Hymenophyllaceae Species in a Temperate Rainforest of Southern Chile

Some epiphytic Hymenophyllaceae are restricted to lower parts of the host (<60 cm; 10–100 μmol photons m^-2 s^-1) in a secondary forest of Southern Chile; other species occupy the whole host height (≥10 m; max PPFD >1000 μmol photons m^-2 s^-1). Our aim was to study the photosynthetic light responses of two Hymenophyllaceae species in relation to their contrasting distribution. We determined light tolerance of Hymenoglossum cruentum and Hymenophyllum dentatum by measuring gas exchange, PSI and PSII light energy partitioning, NPQ components, and pigment contents. H. dentatum showed lower maximum photosynthesis rates (A_max) than H. cruentum, but the former species kept its net rates (A_n) near A_max across a wide light range. In contrast, in the latter one, A_n declined at PPFDs >60 μmol photons m^-2 s^-1. H. cruentum, the shadiest plant, showed higher chlorophyll contents than H. dentatum. Differences in energy partitioning at PSI and PSII were consistent with gas exchange results. H. dentatum exhibited a higher light compensation point of the partitioning of absorbed energy between photochemical Y(PSII) and non-photochemical Y(NPQ) processes. Hence, both species allocated energy mainly toward photochemistry instead of heat dissipation at their light saturation points. Above saturation, H. cruentum had higher heat dissipation than H. dentatum. PSI yield (YPSI) remained higher in H. dentatum than H. cruentum in a wider light range. In both species, the main cause of heat dissipation at PSI was a donor side limitation. An early dynamic photo-inhibition of PSII may have caused an over reduction of the Qa⁺ pool decreasing the efficiency of electron donation to PSI. In H. dentatum, a slight increase in heat dissipation due to acceptor side limitation of PSI was observed above 300 μmol photons m^-2s^-1. Differences in photosynthetic responses to light suggest that light tolerance and species plasticity could explain their contrasting vertical distribution.     

A Three-Dimensional Skeletal Reconstruction of the Stem Amniote Orobates pabsti (Diadectidae): Analyses of Body Mass,Centre of Mass Position,and Joint Mobility

Orobates pabsti, a basal diadectid from the lower Permian, is a key fossil for the understanding of early amniote evolution. Quantitative analysis of anatomical information suffers from fragmentation of fossil bones, plastic deformation due to diagenetic processes and fragile preservation within surrounding rock matrix, preventing further biomechanical investigation. Here we describe the steps taken to digitally reconstruct MNG 10181, the holotype specimen of Orobates pabsti, and subsequently use the digital reconstruction to assess body mass, position of the centre of mass in individual segments as well as the whole animal, and study joint mobility in the shoulder and hip joints. The shape of most fossil bone fragments could be recovered from micro-focus computed tomography scans. This also revealed structures that were hitherto hidden within the rock matrix. However, parts of the axial skeleton had to be modelled using relevant isolated bones from the same locality as templates. Based on the digital fossil, mass of MNG 10181 was estimated using a model of body shape that was varied within a plausible range to account for uncertainties of the dimension. In the mean estimate model the specimen had an estimated mass of circa 4 kg. Varying of the mass distribution amongst body segments further revealed that Orobates carried most of its weight on the hind limbs. Mostly unrestricted joint morphology further suggested that MNG 10181 was able to effectively generate propulsion with the pelvic limbs. The digital reconstruction is made available for future biomechanical studies.     

Mobile Phone Call Data as a Regional Socio-Economic Proxy Indicator

The advent of publishing anonymized call detail records opens the door for temporal and spatial human dynamics studies. Such studies, besides being useful for creating universal models for mobility patterns, could be also used for creating new socio-economic proxy indicators that will not rely only on the local or state institutions. In this paper, from the frequency of calls at different times of the day, in different small regional units (sub-prefectures) in Côte d''Ivoire, we infer users'' home and work sub-prefectures. This division of users enables us to analyze different mobility and calling patterns for the different regions. We then compare how those patterns correlate to the data from other sources, such as: news for particular events in the given period, census data, economic activity, poverty index, power plants and energy grid data. Our results show high correlation in many of the cases revealing the diversity of socio-economic insights that can be inferred using only mobile phone call data. The methods and the results may be particularly relevant to policy-makers engaged in poverty reduction initiatives as they can provide an affordable tool in the context of resource-constrained developing economies, such as Côte d''Ivoire''s.     

The ABC’s of Suicide Risk Assessment: Applying a Tripartite Approach to Individual Evaluations

There is considerable need for accurate suicide risk assessment for clinical, screening, and research purposes. This study applied the tripartite affect-behavior-cognition theory, the suicidal barometer model, classical test theory, and item response theory (IRT), to develop a brief self-report measure of suicide risk that is theoretically-grounded, reliable and valid. An initial survey (n = 359) employed an iterative process to an item pool, resulting in the six-item Suicidal Affect-Behavior-Cognition Scale (SABCS). Three additional studies tested the SABCS and a highly endorsed comparison measure. Studies included two online surveys (Ns = 1007, and 713), and one prospective clinical survey (n = 72; Time 2, n = 54). Factor analyses demonstrated SABCS construct validity through unidimensionality. Internal reliability was high (α = .86-.93, split-half = .90-.94)). The scale was predictive of future suicidal behaviors and suicidality (r = .68, .73, respectively), showed convergent validity, and the SABCS-4 demonstrated clinically relevant sensitivity to change. IRT analyses revealed the SABCS captured more information than the comparison measure, and better defined participants at low, moderate, and high risk. The SABCS is the first suicide risk measure to demonstrate no differential item functioning by sex, age, or ethnicity. In all comparisons, the SABCS showed incremental improvements over a highly endorsed scale through stronger predictive ability, reliability, and other properties. The SABCS is in the public domain, with this publication, and is suitable for clinical evaluations, public screening, and research.     

Multilevel studies on the two phenological forms of Large Blue (Maculinea arion) (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae)

The main goal of our research was to study comprehensively the differences between the two phenological forms of the socially parasitic and globally threatened Large Blue (Maculinea arion) in the Carpathian Basin using four character sets (mitochondrial sequences, allozymes, male genitalia and wing morphometrics). Comparative analyses of distance matrices, phylogenetic trees and ordination patterns have been applied. The genetic and morphometric patterns revealed by our studies were discordant. While we experienced a significant differentiation between the ‘spring’ and ‘summer type’ of M. arion in both wing and genital traits, the two phenological forms did not show any genetic differentiation on two mitochondrial loci and in allozymes. At the same time, all individuals were infected by Wolbachia. Although certain wing traits may not represent reliable tracers of phylogeny because of the particular adaptive significance, the wing characteristics involved in our research are probably determined genetically. Additionally, the significant differentiation of male genitalia also indicates incipient prezygotic isolation arising from phenological differentiation between the ‘spring and summer arion’. It is possible that all extant differences between the two forms are attributable to (1) different host‐ant use, (2) incipient speciation, (3) cytoplasmatic incompatibility (CI) by Wolbachia or the combination of these factors. In addition, discordant results indicate that the combined use of different approaches and data sets is strictly necessary to clarify systematic and evolutionary relationships.